Israel-Iran Conflict: How escalation is shaping Western Europe’s protest threat landscape and beyond

Since the commencement of hostilities between Israel and Iran on 13 June 2025, Western Europe has seen significant public mobilisation, particularly through, but not limited to, large-scale pro-Palestinian protests. Tens of thousands of people have marched in major cities, including London, Berlin, and Bern, demanding a ceasefire in Gaza and warning against the risk of a broader regional war as escalations between Israel and Iran rise. Protests have been ongoing, with monthly demonstrations in London since the beginning of the Gaza conflict, but recent events have intensified both turnout and messaging. Often drawing tens of thousands of supporters, these protests reflect not only solidarity with Palestinians but also deeper concerns about the risk of a wider regional war and frustration with Western governments’ responses.

Protesters continue to demand a ceasefire, an end to arms sales to Israel, and a shift away from military solutions to the situation in Gaza and now Iran. In some cases, pro-Iranian regime supporters have joined these rallies, while anti-Iranian regime voices, particularly among the Iranian diaspora, have also made themselves heard. The protests have, at times, led to a rise in antisemitic incidents and heightened tensions in multicultural urban centres, notably where Israeli and Iranian immigrants are in higher volumes, such as Germany, the UK, the Netherlands, Belgium and France.

This blog will examine recent protest trends across Western Europe and their goals, as well as the outlook for governments and organisations going forward. For SecAlliance’s outlook on the cyber threats posed by the Israel-Iran conflict, see our blog series on the cyber implications of recent conflict developments.

Protest Groups

Whilst protests against both the war in Gaza and the current Israel-Iran conflict remain widespread across central Europe, the focus of the groups involved varies massively. The current European protest threat landscape is extremely varied in its make-up, and rather than one clear target or aim, the protests regularly attempt to address multiple issues and concerns across a range of groups:

• ‍Pro-Palestinian groups opposed to protracted Israeli aggression, human rights violations and war crimes taking place in the Gaza conflict.  ‍
• Anti-Zionist groups opposed to the existence of the state of Israel. ‍
• Anti-war campaigners opposed to tacit and indirect support for the Israeli regime from Western European governments.  ‍
• Anti-Iranian regime groups opposed to the current theocracy and Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s rule, including members of the Iranian diaspora.  ‍
• Pro-Iranian groups, including members of the Iranian diaspora. ‍
• Anti-NATO groups opposed to the current stipulation that members will rearm, with a commitment to spend 5% of GDP in the coming years. ‍
• Anti-US groups opposed to US foreign policy and support for Israel. ‍
• Anarchists and pro-protest supporters motivated by a desire to protest, sometimes leading to violence and wider mayhem. ‍
• Financially backed or state-sponsored protesters, including members of organised criminal groups or nationals from states that would naturally benefit from undermining Western democracies.

Protest Trends Across Europe

• Germany has seen both pro-Iranian and anti-Iranian regime protests, although the former is often within the broader context of pro-Palestinian rallies. Authorities have responded with heightened security and controversial restrictions on some demonstrations. ‍
• The Netherlands has witnessed anti-war and anti-militarisation protests, with significant involvement from the Iranian community. Messaging has focused on peace, rather than support for or opposition to the Iranian regime. ‍
• Belgium has hosted some of the largest rallies, especially in Brussels, with a focus on Palestinian solidarity and criticism of EU and Belgian policies. The Iran-Israel conflict has added urgency, but most demands remain Gaza-related. ‍
• France has experienced smaller but notable demonstrations, centred on anti-war and humanitarian themes, with calls for de-escalation and protection of civilians. ‍
• The UK continues to see some of the largest and most frequent protests focused on Gaza, which have lately linked opposition to Israel’s actions in Gaza with concerns about a wider war involving Iran. Pro-Iranian regime voices have been vocal in these protests, drawing significant anti-regime counter-protests. ‍
• Italy has seen major anti-war and pro-Palestinian demonstrations, with a strong focus on denouncing Israeli military actions and opposing NATO rearmament. Explicit messaging about Iran remains limited.

Key Takeaways

Whilst protest activity is likely to continue unabated across Western Europe for the foreseeable future, a number of takeaways directly related to the current hostilities between Israel and Iran have been noted:

• ‍No significant change in the protest status quo: The Israel-Iran conflict adds another dimension to the current protests, rather than increasing motivation for larger, more widespread activities. The threat to Western Europe from protests will almost certainly remain constant, as it has since the Israel-Gaza conflict began.
• ‍Anti-Israel protest narrative more effective for domestic Iranian audience: From Tehran’s perspective the current wave of European protests is seen as a chance to apply pressure to Western governments and delegitimise Israel on the world stage. Iranian officials and state media have highlighted the protests as evidence of growing international opposition to Israeli actions and Western policies. Whilst this narrative is perceived to be less impactful across Europe it could be viewed as more effective for an internal audience that has restricted access to opposing views.
• ‍Possible escalation from protest to physical attacks: The recent breach of security in the UK at RAF Brize Norton by Palestine Action highlighted the threat of protest activity escalating into direct physical action. Whilst Iran may be keen to avoid directly escalating tensions with the West, there remains a concern that the regime will covertly support or exploit protest movements to further its own aims. This could include physical attacks on embassies, military bases, arms manufacturers and any companies with notable links to Israel. This threat is also particularly likely to impact key personnel of Jewish heritage, US nationals, and those associated with opposition to the current Iranian regime.

What’s Next?

European governments now face a complex threat environment. They must balance the right to protest with the need to prevent violence or foreign interference that seeks to unsettle their governments or punish their citizens. There is already a renewed focus on protecting Jewish and Israeli-linked sites, monitoring for cyber threats, and countering disinformation, whilst authorities also work to engage with diaspora communities, hoping to reduce the risk of radicalisation and exploitation by hostile actors. At the same time, intelligence agencies are on high alert for signs of sabotage, espionage, or coordinated hybrid attacks, which are notoriously hard to attribute in the moment and often take months to uncover as state-sponsored covert operations.

For businesses in Europe, these threats are just as concerning. The safety of staff, leadership teams, and properties remains at the forefront of every security team as the physical protest threat landscape threatens to break beyond the current norms in a bid for activists or nation states to find the weakest link.

SecAlliance delivers timely and actionable insight through our Physical Intelligence Services from the Fusion Team, helping clients stay ahead of protest risks, political unrest, and emerging physical threats across regions.To learn how we can support your organisation, contact us at info@secalliance.com.